In the past two years, food prices have surged worldwide as a confluence of factors converged, bringing food insecurity to a new level globally. As examined in my report, Global Food Systems under Mounting Pressures, war, extreme weather events, supply-chain shocks, and labor shortages have exacerbated an already grim outlook. As many as 222 million people in 53 countries and territories suffered acute food insecurity last year, a 15 percent increase from 2021, the United Nations (UN) estimates. When you include people with moderate food insecurity—those who have to compromise on food quality, cut on quantity, or skip meals—that number swells to 2.3 billion, almost a third of the world’s population.
The war in Ukraine shows how a localized shock can cascade through international food supply chains. About a quarter of all agricultural output is exported, which has made international trade a key component of food security. That trade was already hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic when the war broke.
Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of agricultural products, ranking among the top five globally for wheat, barley, maize, and sunflower oil. While the war physically curtailed Ukraine’s ability to grow, harvest, and export food, sanctions did the same for Russia, which is also a critical supplier of ingredients needed for fertilizers. The war also hit energy prices, contributing to higher costs for planting, harvesting, and shipping agricultural products.
In response to social unrest, increased food protectionism hurts efforts to improve food security.
Extreme weather—more severe droughts, flooding, landslides, and unexpected frost due to global warming—are also damaging crops worldwide at an increasing frequency and volume. The devastating floods in Pakistan from July to October last year washed away nearly half of the country’s crops. The drought in the Horn of Africa has forced millions of people to move from the stricken areas in search of food. In Egypt, extreme heat in the summer and extreme cold in the winter have hurt the Nile delta's output, the main source of food for the nation.
Since the pandemic, labor shortages have been prevalent in many parts of the world, affecting many sectors. Agriculture has been especially hurt because of changes to immigration laws, restrictions on seasonal work visas, and declining interest in agricultural employment. In certain countries, including the UK, labor shortages have led to unharvested crops spoiling. Aging populations in Asia and Western Europe are also contributing to such shortages as it becomes increasingly difficult to replace retiring agricultural workers.
While food prices have come down from their all-time highs, they remain higher than they were in the previous decade, even after adjusting for inflation. Geopolitical tensions, in addition to war, continue to disrupt food supplies and trade, hurting the most vulnerable regions that depend on food imports. The food crisis has already triggered social unrest, internal displacement, and migration to neighboring countries. Each 1 percent increase in food insecurity leads to a 2 percent increase in the number of people migrating, according to the UN.
The threat of famine is acute in Africa and the Middle East, with potential to increase social unrest and migration out of the region, including to Europe and other parts of the developed world. Meanwhile, in response to these tensions, increased food protectionism is hurting efforts to improve food security at the global level.
What Can Be Done?
In the short run, supply chains can be made more resilient through more efficient storage facilities and improved food safety inspections. Countries can diversify their food imports and “friend-shore,” making economic pacts with like-minded countries to ensure continuity in times of war and geopolitical tension.
In the long run, countries, especially those dependent on food imports, can increase domestic food production with the help of technology. Agricultural technology has made many advances recently that can support local production and reduce reliance on global trade, such as precision and vertical farming, hydroponics (using water-based nutrient solutions rather than soil), and the use of drones and robotics to monitor and handle the crops. Meanwhile, action at the consumer level is needed, too. We have to reduce food waste and accept alternative proteins more to help lower the pressure on the system.
There is an urgent need to structurally reconfigure our global food systems, rooted in sustainability and resilience. The global food system is largely geared to producing low-priced, highly processed food. Any attempt to address food security will have to shift the focus to producing nutritious products in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way.