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The Asian Crisis Tsunami: Trade and Other Impacts on California and the United States
Sep 01, 1998

After enduring a severe recession in the early 1990s, job growth in California has exceeded the national average for the past 18 months. The financial earthquake in Asia, however, is threatening to send an economic tsunami toward us. Globalization has fostered closer economic integration, and California has especially important ties with the Asian economies.

But just how exposed are we to events in Asia?

Utilizing a bilateral trade model with the Asian-10 countries (China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand), we have evaluated the impacts on the state, its metropolitan areas (metros), and the United States under three alternative economic scenarios for the Asian-10.