The threat from terrorism is down, but Iran's nuclear ambitions and instability from the Arab Spring still present major risks to world peace, according to a panel of experts at the Global Conference.

The situation in Iran "is the most serious problem facing us as citizens of the world," said Shaukat Aziz, former prime minister of Pakistan. "Any [military] strike on Iran will be the biggest catastrophe in the current decade and decades to come."

The reaction from Iran, the impact on energy prices and the sentiment of the rest of the Islamic world would all be devastating, Aziz said. However, the other Persian Gulf states believe an even greater threat than military action against Iran is the prospect of Iran becoming a nuclear state and the "hegemony" that would create, said David Scott, executive director of economic and energy affairs in Abu Dhabi.

Twenty percent of the world's oil travels through the Straits of Hormuz, which is why the UAE is investing billions in a strategic pipeline to bypass it. The Iran threat is even creating some strange strategic alliances between Arab Gulf states and Israel, he said.

There's good news on the terrorism front, however. Al-Qaeda has been "terribly weakened," according to Julie Cohen of the National Intelligence Council. The threat of mass casualties from chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks is down. Chaos resulting from the Arab Spring could give extremists new places to operate, though, and the fragmented nature of global jihadism can make it harder to combat. "It's easier for people to slip through the cracks," she said.

Arab states that have recently overthrown their governments are now in a "messy phase," Scott said. Failure of governments to deliver a better quality of life could give rise to significant political unrest. He also believes Syria will be the next to topple. "I think the Assad regime is doomed," he said. While a minority is currently ruling a majority, "the majority will eventually reclaim their rights."

That could take awhile, though, because there hasn't been much action in the two largest cities in Syria, Damascus and Aleppo, Aziz said. Close ties between Russia and Syria will slow things down, too.

Aziz also addressed the tense relationship between the United States and Pakistan and, specifically, whether Pakistan's intelligence service, the ISI, knew where Osama Bin Laden was hiding at the time he was killed. "They had no idea," he said. "The fact that they didn't know is a very serious intelligence failure. It's very embarrassing."

The current "trust deficit" between the U.S. and Pakistan is huge, he added. The view of the U.S. from the Pakistani street is quite negative, and the refusal of the U.S. to apologize for Pakistani soldiers who were "brutally killed in cold blood by U.S. troops" doesn't help.

Cohen said the relationship with Pakistan is "probably the most complex relationship the U.S. has."

As for Pakistan's neighbor, Afghanistan, Aziz said the battle there is no longer a military issue. It's now a battle for the hearts and minds of the people. "You can't kill and entire nation," he said. "You've got to engage." He called for a Marshall-style plan for Afghanistan, including an infusion of cash to help create jobs.