Economics trumps politics. That's the bottom line between China and the United States, according to a panel of experts at the Global Conference. While tensions between the two countries are always simmering, the economies are so intertwined that it's ultimately in their best interests to get along.
"China-bashing during an election year is a strong bipartisan tradition," said Nina Hachigian of the Center for American Progress. But whoever gets into office is likely to tone the rhetoric down.
There's a view among Chinese elites that the United States is trying to contain China and "keep it down," and the current political rhetoric reinforces that view, Hachigian said. Charles Y.S. Liu of Hao Capital, however, believes sophisticated Chinese don't take such rhetoric seriously. "Too many American politicians say crazy things."
Chinese leaders understand that a good relationship with the United States "is fundamentally in China's interest," said Professor Minxin Pei. In the end, "pragmatism not ideology" will drive policies.
There was one tense exchange on the panel between Liu and James Chanos of Kynikos Associates over the health of the Chinese economy.
Chanos pointed out that while Chinese GDP has quintupled since 2000, equity returns have been negative. The property market is problematic, and household consumption in China is actually dropping, he said. The top 2 to 3 percent of the country is growing disproportionately wealthy, but that's not reflective of the rest of society. "Forty million people can buy an awful lot of luxury goods, but that doesn't mean the whole country is doing the same thing," he said. "Trade with China. Don't invest there."
Liu shot back, questioning whether Chanos had visited China recently. Chanos admitted he had not but said he thinks too many are wowed by the appearance of Chinese growth. "A boom always looks active," Chanos said, pointing to Dubai as an example.
"The credit situation there is much more dire than people think," Chanos added, and China should send a thank you note to Spain and Greece for diverting the world's attention. Liu, however, contended that the Chinese government successfully cooled the economy to a "very controlled pace" last year. "It's a managed cooling," he said, "rather than the sky is falling."
The panel also discussed recent dramatic developments in Chinese politics, including the daring escape of the blind human-rights activist Chen Guangcheng into U.S. diplomatic custody in Beijing, as well as the intrigue surrounding the current leadership succession under way in China. Both stories could not have been better scripted by Hollywood, the panelists agreed.
Liu called the current leadership succession "the greatest political battle to take place in China" in recent memory. However Pei believes they're not fighting over the direction of the country and whether to be more open and engaged. Instead, it's all about political turf and "personal power," he said. Neither Pei nor Liu believes China will change its one-party system for decades.
The ruling party in China maintains its power through fear, Pei said. So when an activist like Cheng is no longer afraid, it causes the Chinese government to panic. The U.S., he added, is a political threat to the Communist Party because it shows there is an alternate political model. As long as there is such a difference in the political systems, there will not be a "state of trust," he said.
One thing all the panelists agreed on was that tensions between China and the U.S. will not likely lead to a military conflict anytime soon. When two nuclear powers have such economic interdependence, there's too much incentive to get along. "We haven't had a proclivity toward conquering each other, " Hachigian said.