As countries around the world await the gathering of European leaders in Brussels this Thursday and Friday, the hope is that the outcome of their meeting will be decisive action, once and for all, to arrest the Euro zone crisis. Wishful thinking.
There are two possible courses of action beyond simply muddling along, as has been the case for too long.
One course of action is to allow Greece to exit the Euro. The problem is that the immediate result would be a further deterioration in the situation of Greece – and the possibility that an exit could set off a wave of uncertainty about Euro leaders’ commitment to providing financial help to other troubled countries -- raising the possibility that some of these may also exit the Euro. Investors may therefore demand even higher interest rates on the debt issued by those countries -- if not totally withdrawing from them -- thus worsening the overall crisis.
Once this vicious cycle is set in full motion, the Euro may very well end up with a smaller currency union, encompassing only Germany, France, and perhaps some Scandinavian countries as members. As they say, “breaking up is hard to do”.
Another course of action would be to move toward more integration within the Euro zone, beyond merely a currency union and toward a political, fiscal, and banking union. Though there are substantial political hurdles to overcome, this could yield enormous benefits by keeping the Euro currency block intact.
By the countries’ giving up some sovereignty to central European fiscal and banking supervisory authorities (as regards to intervening in an individual country’s fiscal affairs when deemed necessary and dealing with large cross-border banks in trouble), together the countries would remain far more economically powerful in a global context than individually.
The Euro zone countries collectively have a population of 332 million and a GDP of US$ 13 trillion. This puts these countries second only to the United States with a GDP of US$ 15 trillion, and with a slightly larger population. With such economic power comes the ability to compete more effectively in an increasingly global market place. Not to be overlooked is the fact that greater economic might brings greater political power, both of which are important to better defend European interests. Just imagine how much less economically and politically powerful the 50 United States would be globally if they competed individually.
We’ll shortly see if the European leaders are up for the difficult task of taking decisive action and what course of action they decide to take. Or whether the muddling along continues.