European leaders met in Brussels yesterday with an
overwhelming majority of them recommending the issuance of
Eurozone-wide bonds (“Euro bonds”) as the panacea for the
region’s problems. Proponents of such a move included the
President of France and the Prime Minister of Italy, as well as the
heads of the International Monetary Fund and the European
Union. There was only one problem: Germany remains
stubbornly opposed to the creation of bonds that would be
jointly guaranteed by all members of the Eurozone. In the end,
the minority of one was able to reject the proposal supported by
most other nations represented at the dinner meeting. They will
consider the Euro bond proposal again in another crisis summit next month, probably with no more prospect for success.
To understand the circumstances governing Europe’s decisionmaking
process and why the meeting ended with just a tepid
announcement, think about a profligate teenager who would like
a credit card to boost his or her spending capacity. However,
there is to be no parental control on how much can be spent
through the credit card, or what can be purchased. Even though
the teenager is jointly responsible with the parent for paying the
bills, it would eventually be the parent’s responsibility to ensure
that the payments are made in full and on time. If not, the
parent’s credit standing is bound to suffer.
The Brussels meeting involved a similar focus on debt-ridden
countries attempting to lower their borrowing cost by making
their obligation that of Germany’s as well. On the other hand,
there was little discussion of accepting fiscal oversight -- by
Germany or by an international entity -- in return.
Euro Bonds Will Merely Postpone
Day of Reckoning
Issuance of Euro bonds will almost certainly alleviate the
ongoing stress in global financial markets, and could even
reverse the recession that most Eurozone countries are
experiencing. At the same time, availability of new financing at
reduced interest rates will likely encourage benefiting countries
to reverse much needed structural reforms that have been
made since the financial crisis of 2008. For example, French
Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault reiterated yesterday the new
government’s decision to reduce the retirement age from 62 to
60 for those who have worked for 41 years. This will reverse the
move by the preceding Sarkozy administration which was
intended to strengthen the pension scheme. The estimated
€1 billion cost of such a move can more easily be met if Euro
bonds provide financing at lower rates.
The government in Spain, attempting to stem deposit flight
from banks resulting from the declining quality of real estate
loans on their portfolios, will also get a reprieve. Rather than
infuse outside equity in banks to strengthen their capital
position, or allow real estate investors to purchase property at
a discount to develop them and create jobs, availability of
cheap loans will enable authorities to nationalize more banks
in trouble as they did with Bankia earlier this month. In turn,
that would further increase Spain’s public sector deficit
financed, you guessed it, by newly issued Euro bonds! At a time
when sovereign risk in Europe is on the rise due to
governments’ inability to lower debt-GDP ratios, introduction
of a new form of financing will simply provide a mechanism to
delay a much needed deleveraging in the region.
Euro Bonds Will Eventually Raise
German Country Risk
Perhaps the strongest argument against the creation of Euro
bonds is that it will increase German country risk even as it
lowers the borrowing cost of other Eurozone countries in the
short-term. Guaranteeing the debt of countries without an
enforceable discipline on spending control would immediately
cause bund yields to rise, and would end Germany’s status as
a safe haven. If rating agencies react by depriving Germany of
its treasured AAA rating, that would be the first step in an
eventual increase in overall Eurozone regional risk, and a
renewed deterioration in the European debt crisis. It is the
potential loss of the country’s credit rating rather than the mere
transfer of resources involved in bailouts that is leading
German Chancellor Angela Merkel to strongly oppose the
creation of Euro bonds. It is unrealistic to expect the German
position to shift toward accepting Euro bond issuance
notwithstanding the weight of the support for such issuance.
As the European debt crisis spirals further, the failure of last
night’s Brussels talks is yet another signal that there are no
shortcuts to solving the region’s crisis. As readers have read in
this column again and again, debt reduction for troubled
countries, and market-friendly measures such as debt-equity
conversions, are what Europe needs to be put back on a
sustainable growth path. Without such moves, Europe risks
not only to enter region-wide recession itself but to carry the
entire global economy down with it.
Komal S. Sri-Kumar, a senior fellow at the Milken Institute, is chief global strategist at TCW.