erhood in Egypt.
from defection to carry out attacks on high-
members who can vouch for potential opera-
tives. Another possibility is that Al Qaeda ex-
tends that club network by recruiting within
been the case for bin Laden's driver. Yet an-
other method, apparently in use in Iraq, is to
send foreign recruits who have not signaled
commitment on suicide attacks; that way they
have little time to be exposed to information
that would make them defection risks.
In 1973, PLO Chairman Yasir Arafat had a ter-
rorism problem. The campaign of hijacking
and hostage-taking, and the spectacular at-
tack on athletes at the Munich Olympics, had
exposed his cause brilliantly to the world.
ing achieved international standing, further
being vilified as a bloodthirsty terrorist orga-
nization just when he wanted to become the
foremost statesman for the Palestinian cause.
It was now critical to somehow keep his cadres
of accomplished terrorists under control.
a generous outside option: an apartment in
Beirut, $3,000, a gas stove, a refrigerator and a
television. Best of all, they recruited a hun-
dred lovely young Palestinian women to the
cause. If an operative married and had a child
within a year, he qualified for a $5,000 bonus.
outside options. Even men with a history of
horrible violence respond to domestic incen-
tives, however mundane these may seem.
also has a wonderful implication: govern-
ment can limit the lethality of terrorist clubs
by countering the tactics that clubs use to in-
sulate themselves from defection.
gitimate economy: thriving markets and
quality educational opportunities. Anything
that enhances the labor-market opportunities
of potential defectors tightens the defection
constraint that rebels face on terrorist activi-
ties, making it easier for the government to
bribe conspirators into defection.
bullet holes marking three decades of civil
war and invasion. These are also bursting
with a majority Shiite population, having ab-
sorbed refugees and migrants from the Shiite
way that Sadr City in Baghdad absorbed eco-