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The Milken Institute Review
had allowed energy export revenues to in-
crease the effective exchange rate of the ruble
by 145 percent since 2001, undermining ef-
forts to build markets for Russian exports
other than oil and gas.
But the deepest, most troubling problems
revealed by the crisis ­ the problems that re-
sist straightforward solutions ­ are related to
Russia's political and economic cultures.
The Bad Old Ways
Even as the economy was triumphantly recov-
ering from the 1998 crisis, Russia was brush-
ing aside nascent democratic institutions and
increasing state control over the economy.
The World Bank's Governance Index mea-
sures these trends by tracking six factors. And
few countries that fare badly on the index
manage sustained growth.
In voice and accountability, a broad mea-
sure of democratic attainment, Russia scored
in the 35th percentile among all countries in
1998 and slipped to the 22nd percentile in
2009. In contrast, Brazil, China and India
(which with Russia make up the up-and-
coming bloc of large developing countries
known as BRIC) managed scores in the 40s.
Russia tallied a 24th percentile ranking in po-
litical stability; by comparison, the non-Rus-
sian BRICs were all in the mid-30s.
Although Russia posted a respectable 51st
percentile in government effectiveness in 2003,
it was plainly heading the wrong way: the fig-
ure was down to the 45th percentile in 2008.
(The other BRICs maintained scores in the
high 50s.) Similarly, nascent reforms in regu-
latory quality
pushed Russia from the 19th
percentile in 2000 when Putin took the reins
of government from Boris Yeltsin, to the 47th
percentile in 2003. But by the time Putin left
the presidency, the figure had retreated to the
31st percentile.
Russia's performance in rule of law has
been a particular embarrassment: the country
scored a miserable 20th percentile in 2008,
compared with a 49th percentile average for
the other BRICs. By the same token, Russia is
lagging miserably in control of corruption,
ending up in the 15th percentile, versus 48th
for the other BRICs.
Lack of progress in the quality of gover-
nance has had the expected consequences.
The Heritage House Index of Economic Free-
dom ­ an ideologically charged source to be
sure, but one that offers insights into the effi-
ciency of economies ­ is indicative. By Heri-
tage's reckoning, Russia ranked 146 out of
179 countries in 2009, trailing such stalwarts
of economic freedom as Vietnam, Ethiopia
and Burkina Faso. Likewise, Russia ranked a
mere 58th out of 122 countries on the Milken
Institute Capital Access Index in 2008, behind
Peru, Egypt and Belarus.
Why did the development of Russian insti-
tutions lag so badly behind the growth num-
bers? Two reasons:
·The oil and gas boom, which ironically
undercut incentives to improve governance
and reduce corruption, undermined balanced
economic development.
·Vladimir Putin's willingness to sacrifice
medium-term growth prospects to bolster his
own power and to increase Russia's resilience
to short-term currency shocks.
The Curse of Oil
Study after study has found that economies
underpinned by energy exports are unlikely
to sustain growth once prices decline. One
reason is that a surfeit of cash during the
boom reduces the government's will to exact
taxes ­ and thus the need to earn citizen sup-
rOBerT lOOney teaches economics at the naval
Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.
r u s s i a 's p r o s p e c t s