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32
The Milken Institute Review
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serve more time, not less.
Paring the numbers incarcerated could be
usefully complemented by greater efforts to
target incarceration more effectively. Low-
level dealers are now locked up on the ratio-
nale that it makes drugs harder to get and
more expensive. Yet, as is well known (by ev-
eryone, apparently, except the policymakers),
the prices of cocaine and heroin have fallen
over the decades. The only published effort to
estimate the effects of increased incarceration
on cocaine prices, co-authored by Steven Lev-
itt of Freakonomics fame, found that during a
period in which incarceration for drugs
(mostly cocaine) rose from 82,000 to 376,000,
the retail price rose by 5 to 15 percent. A sim-
ple calculation of the cost-effectiveness of
locking up drug offenders, as measured by
the reduction in cocaine consumption per $1
million spent by the government, shows that
it is much less effective than much-scorned
drug treatment ­ even taking into account
the notoriously high dropout and relapse
rates. There's simply no question that cutting
sentences for drug dealers would make mini-
mal difference in the price or availability of
cocaine, heroin or methamphetamine.
I offer no magic formula here; there's no
reason to believe that halving the incarcera-
tion rate, as opposed to, say, cutting it by one-
third or by two-thirds, would be optimal. The
point is simply that drastic reductions in in-
carceration ­ and thus reduction in costs to
both society and to the many drug users who
are locked up because they sell to support their
habits ­ would be possible without embarking
on the uncharted waters of legalization.
Cutting prison populations is especially
attractive right now because of the desperate
plight of state budgets ­ and, in the case of