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Panel Detail:

Tuesday, April 25, 2006
10:50 AM - 12:05 PM

Political Opinion in America: Where is it Headed?

Moderator:

Matt Miller, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress; Author, Columnist

Douglas Schoen argues that current poll numbers reflect the public's dissatisfaction with the way Republicans have handled important issues the past few years.

Douglas Schoen, the former advisor to the Clinton administration, agreed that most recent polls show Democrats ahead in approval rankings on all issues but terrorism, and even there the gap is closing. These numbers, Schoen argued, reflect the general dissatisfaction the public feels with the way the Republican majority has handled important domestic and international issues during the past few years.

Frank Luntz, a public relations advisor to many members of the Republican Congress, admitted that the numbers look bad; however, he argued, polls are misleading. The questions often use polarizing language so that that the negative emotions they evoke overshadow more rational choices Americans typically make when they actually vote. The main crisis in the Republican Party, he claimed, is rooted not in ideology, but in the lack of clear and honest communication. "Republicans need to express what they mean!" Luntz proclaimed as he left his seat and headed for the audience, "and my job is to help them get the words right."

"So how volatile is the public opinion in the United States today?" Matt Miller asked. The data suggests that Americans are discontent with both Republicans and Democrats and that the fastest-growing party in America today is "No Party." Schoen believes that new swing voters will be deciding elections in the near future.

Both panelists agreed that unless the major parties start to communicate their agendas clearly and attract the voters back in, third-party candidates will have a viable chance at victory. However, they noted that running independently still remains a very expensive proposition, available only to the very wealthy.

Given where public opinion is headed, Schoen said he expected the 2006 Congressional elections to be a clear win for Democrats. Luntz reluctantly agreed, adding that a third of his Republican clients are pessimistic about their chances for re-election. However, predicting the outcome of 2008 presidential elections was much harder. Luntz noted that going by poll ratings alone in 2004 presidential elections, Democrats were in a great position to take office, but they still lost. He attributed this success to George W. Bush′s ability to relate to the average American and said that candidate "personability" is an important factor for the Democrats to consider when they head into the 2008 elections.

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