Sharon Allen, Chairman, U.S. Board of Directors, Deloitte

Gary Becker, Nobel Laureate, Economic Sciences, 1992; Professor, Economics and Sociology, University of Chicago; FasterCures Board Member

Thomas Hughes, Global Head Asset Management; Member of Group Executive Committee, Deutsche Bank

Jami Miscik, Deputy Director for Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency

Rupert Murdoch, Chairman and CEO, News Corporation; Chairman and CEO, Fox Entertainment Group

Moderator:

Paul Gigot, Editorial Page Editor, The Wall Street Journal

Summary:

Rife with optimism, this year′s Global Overview could best be summarized by Tom Hughes′ opening insight, "What a difference a year can make!" When compared with last spring's economic environment, you might argue that it′s easy to be an optimist—the Dow Jones is up 25 percent and NASDAQ more than 50 percent. So the real question is whether this year′s optimism is justified.

While there were pockets of concern with respect to terrorism, protectionist trade policy, and rising oil prices, all signs were positive for the U.S. economy. What was most promising, however, was the panel′s collective perspective that we are entering a period of "synchronized global expansion." Along with the U.S. recovery, we are witnessing tremendous growth in China, Japan, and India. Countries that have suffered decades of stagnation are beginning to come online, and while the effects of outsourcing may be challenging in the short-term, the U.S. will be better off because of it. China, for example, can finally begin to afford many of the goods it has been exporting to the rest of the world for years. As China grows and prospers, its billion plus consumers will become an enormous market for U.S. goods and services.

In spite of all the optimism for the U.S. and Asia, the panel held a decidedly gloomy economic outlook for Europe. The combination of shifting demographics, complacency, and latent socialist philosophies are leading to what Gary Becker called "Europe′s comfortable decline." Europeans have experienced relatively poor growth and high unemployment for decades and yet, they don′t seem willing to make the difficult institutional changes that might disrupt their own well-being. So while it is often true that a rising tide lifts all boats, it appears that Europe is still at risk of running aground.

Regardless, the underlying theme of the Global Overview was that of optimism—after all, the human spirit is nothing if not resilient. The truth is we have come a long way in the last year. The U.S. is leading the recovery, but this time, we are sharing the economic limelight with Asia. With more than 60 percent of the world′s population, Asia will undoubtedly be a significant driver of growth and prosperity for economies around the globe. Since it′s not completely clear how this will play out, we are wise to heed the words of Rupert Murdoch, "with so many unknowns in the world, we should be humble with our predictions, but not with our hopes."

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