Summary:The panel concerned with America’s military might brought together three panelists with very distinct backgrounds. William Perry was the 19th Secretary of Defense under Bill Clinton; Alvin Toffler is an author and futurist; and Albert Myers is Corporate Vice President at Northrop Grumman Corporation. The panel tackled issues ranging from the changing paradigm in international geopolitics, the role of high technology and its place in the evolution of America’s military forces.
Moderator Jon Kutler, founder and CEO of Jefferies Quarterdeck, set the stage by illustrating the changes brought about by the collapse of the Berlin Wall. He further illustrated the impact of the attacks of September 11 on New York and Washington D.C. and its meaning as yet another inflection point in American military and foreign relations.
Alvin Toffler referred to the thesis of his book, The Third Wave. Toffler described global change as a function of three general waves: (1) human transformation from hunting and gathering to agriculture, (2) the industrial revolution, and (3) the current reinvention of civilization.
This third wave, Toffler argued, is an agglomeration of constant and simultaneous change in economic theory and practice, technology, religion and freedom. Such components of change, Toffler says, are not necessarily embraced by the world at large, and in some instances, are met with violent hostility. Conflict comes as a result of change. The third wave is about a change in the power structure of the planet in which the United States has risen to the top due to its collective propensity to accept and embrace change. This ‘change’ was further examined by William Perry.
Perry took the audience through a journey of military history dating back to the initiation of the Manhattan Project—a project that, according to Perry and contrary to popular belief, had no bearing on the outcome of World War II. World War II, Perry argued, was a war won on the back of industrial might. The United States, upon the end of World War II, shifted its industrial production away from the military war machine, whereas the Soviet Union stepped up its production of military machinery and equipment. Such a policy by the Soviets resulted in a three-to-one advantage in their favor against the United States. As a result, the United States decided to level the playing field not by reconvening pre-WWII production quotas, but by employing what became known as the “offset strategy.” Offset strategy was a tactical framework whereupon America’s military efforts consisted of high tech-centered precision weapons. The Stealth Project is a result of such planning.
Perry went on to argue that present-day military capabilities are a response to the Cold War paradigm. Desert Storm, Perry says, was the first opportunity we had to test and deploy the technologies developed during the Cold War. They are a response to threats brought about by nation states, not those brought about by the mobile enemies that we face today. Our military capabilities were not, and thus are not, created to battle nonconventional tactics such as attacks on civilian or infrastructural targets at home or abroad that are masterminded in the shades of population centers that are often sympathetic to their ideological cause.
Toffler implicitly agreed by stating that today’s and tomorrow’s enemies will not be nation states the likes of the former Soviet Union, but rather mobile entities within states such as Al Qaida that have both the capability to strike abroad as well as inside our borders.
Albert Myers shifted the discussion from national and international implications of the Cold War to those faced by companies in the defense industry. Myers stated that the end of the Cold War forced the defense industry to become more cost effective and to switch its business model from one of inherent predictability to one whose market for its goods became unpredictable overnight. With this fundamental shift taking place, Northrop-Grumman strengthened its position in reconnaissance, surveillance, and centric network warfare. This transformation, not only for Northrop-Grumman but for the industry as a whole, is at its earliest stages of development.
The panel discussion concluded with a dialog between the moderator and the panelists. Topics discussed included potential future American targets, the efficiency of networks and systems, and the pros and cons of hierarchal agencies such as the State Department and Department of Defense.
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