Lately it seems that a whole flock of black swans has descended at once. The Middle East has been transformed practically overnight by revolutionary forces calling for change. And yet these forces were not driven by religious fundamentalists, but by ordinary citizens demanding social justice. Will their movement be hijacked in the months ahead? The world had barely begun to digest these events when news broke of the devastating Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. What will be the ripple effects of such a monumental tragedy? Has the world become so complex and fast-moving that reliable forecasts are no longer possible? Where else might trouble be brewing? This panel will examine the extraordinary shifts taking place and attempt to discern whether there are even bigger surprises on the horizon.
Army General (ret.) and former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO; Senior Fellow, UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations
Sir Richard Dearlove
Master of Pembroke College, Cambridge; former Chief, British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)
National Intelligence Officer for Economic Issues, National Intelligence Council
President and Vice Chairman, Kissinger Associates Inc.; former Deputy Director for Intelligence, CIA